You admitted it yourself: 'general insight'. And as far as I'm concerned your minor gives you, at best, the most millimetrical margin of insight greater than most people on these forums, who are no strangers to the development side of the gaming world.
My point being that even if you were CEO or head of dev at another big studio, you have literally zero extra insight over myself or anyone else on this forum (barring Bashiok's secret lurker account or something) over what -Blizzard- really has going on behind closed doors, you don't know where they honestly feel they stand any more than the rest of us.
I don't mind everyone speculating, but no one has any reasonable ground to stand on to claim that their speculation has any more credit to it than anyone else's.
The people who have been in those meetings and are attaching their names / reputations to those dates, loose as they are, have told us Q3 beta, 2011 release as the goal. Why is it unreasonable to believe them? If they said 'Q1 2012' does anyone think sales are going to be lower or something?
I don't appreciate future assumptions, so I'll clear the air now: I'm just as willing to take my forum beating if they do disappoint greatly, and I'll be first in line, albeit graciously, the flaunt my confidence if things go as planned.
We're all friends here...
Edit: And yes we've all heard the rhetoric of 'Well sure 2011 is the GOAL but they know they can't get it out by then...'; this is nonsense. If they're sticking to it even as 'a goal' they have at least a reasonable level of confidence they can do it, there's absolutely no reason they'd lay themselves that clear a trap to fall into later when they have to move the date back.
As I said, I don't claim to be "enlightened", I'd just like me experience to add merit to what I support. An at this point where non us know of Blizzards plans more than another, what else do we have to work with but past Blizzard development trends, and general game development time frames? If we step back from it far enough one can argue that any opinion on a mysterious topic is no more merited than another's, but that isn't the case when you talk about educated guesses and statistics.
I honestly respect any opinion though, and frankly damn well hope you're right about 2011, I just don't think so :P.
An yes, we're all friends here, waiting together.. In Purgatory.. Well maybe not Zerg4hire .. Damn troll..
“We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all that we need to make us happy is something to be enthusiastic about.” - Albert Einstein
It's still the case when the issue of how 'insightful' those marginal insights really are, which is what I already discussed.
You've basically offered a thin layer of dev-cycle lexicon to what we already know. 'But guys, Blizzard has so much to do before they can launch!' Yes, we're all aware of that, surprisingly enough.
No Blizzard employee ID card? No magical knowledge specific to D3 to share. The guys who do have that knowledge? Oh, Q3 beta and 2011 release is still the target goal.
Nobody is saying they have magical knowledge. But honestly dude, saying that all opinions are equal when I just had to explain the difference between Alpha and Beta test to several people...
I totally respect most of your opinions, having read them.. but diminishing the importance of expertise is a common method used by those who lack it.
In any case, we're really digging into some rhetorical skullduggery here. The bottom line is, I expected more information at this conf call than was given. Shame on me.
Edit: yes, we're all friends, and we're ultimately all on the same side. we want D3.
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"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."
-Thomas Jefferson
I never said they were all perfectly equal, I said at best there was a small advantage in some opinions over others, but that it was mostly that: marginal.
Yes, I saw the alpha/beta clarification and it was a fine point to make. On the topic of clarification, I very genuinely appreciate Winged's offerings but a minor in graphic design != 'expertise' on game development, much less Blizzard's, particularly related to D3, which is the only point I was ever making. Corollary proclamations ('I'm a software developer, I'm an investor', ad nauseum) encounter the same problems.
There's a difference between framing your opinion as 'I think that...' and 'You're all wrong and I'm right because of x y and z knowledge that I have.'
There's a difference between framing your opinion as 'I think that...' and 'You're all wrong and I'm right because of x y and z knowledge that I have.'
It's a good point. And it says to me that I haven't been expressing my points very clearly.
All I've really been saying is that we don't know anything extra, because Blizzard didn't tell us anything substantial. I've been revealing flaws in people's assumptions, not stating anything as fact over other people.
I've also just been trying to caution people about automatically building new timetables on heresay. That has been spun as my being overly negative, which I'm not.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."
-Thomas Jefferson
What's hard is that it's essentially impossible to find middle ground here; either people are seen as fanboys who think Blizzard can do no wrong and accept anything they're told without any skepticism, or as overly skeptical Blizz-haters that think Blizzard will never do anything right by the players, will always be months/years late, etc. I've obviously been open to being accused of falling into the former camp, and I realize I've been guilty tonight of leveling the latter accusation at you and others. Neither is fair.
All I'm really ever getting at here is that the people who really know what's going on with D3, as best as anyone really does (i.e., anything can happen, something game-breaking appears last minute and they have to postpone, or internal testing goings unbelievably well and we see beta ahead of schedule, etc.) are still saying they think can do this timetable. I think it's unreasonable to think they'd set even a caveat-laden goal this prominently if they didn't think they had a better-than-not chance of hitting it (i.e., 51%+, even slightly better than even odds).
Blizzard has had one sketchy history, we all know that. But I think we're seeing a new era of sorts, and SC2 was pretty pristine as far as living up to their timetable. D3 is a different beast (literally!) but I still believe it bodes well. They've been hyper cautious, as always, at every turn, so now that they've given us even this admittedly preliminary 'date', I'm confident.
What's hard is that it's essentially impossible to find middle ground here; either people are seen as fanboys who think Blizzard can do no wrong and accept anything they're told without any skepticism, or as overly skeptical Blizz-haters that think Blizzard will never do anything right by the players, will always be months/years late, etc. I've obviously been open to being accused of falling into the former camp, and I realize I've been guilty tonight of leveling the latter accusation at you and others. Neither is fair.
All I'm really ever getting at here is that the people who really know what's going on with D3, as best as anyone really does (i.e., anything can happen, something game-breaking appears last minute and they have to postpone, or internal testing goings unbelievably well and we see beta ahead of schedule, etc.) are still saying they think can do this timetable. I think it's unreasonable to think they'd set even a caveat-laden goal this prominently if they didn't think they had a better-than-not chance of hitting it (i.e., 51%+, even slightly better than even odds).
Blizzard has had one sketchy history, we all know that. But I think we're seeing a new era of sorts, and SC2 was pretty pristine as far as living up to their timetable. D3 is a different beast (literally!) but I still believe it bodes well. They've been hyper cautious, as always, at every turn, so now that they've given us even this admittedly preliminary 'date', I'm confident.
/steps off the soapbox
Thank you, and /agree.
The only people who have any real inside knowledge of actual dates of releases have said: Q3 beta, 2011 release, just as you said. That being not only the BEST but the ONLY real non-speculation knowledge we have, I think that, Blizzard's history of timetable jumping aside, at this point (especially given the way the SC2 release went) we have no real reason to doubt those words.
“We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all that we need to make us happy is something to be enthusiastic about.” - Albert Einstein
I'm excited that the beta will be out soon. Too bad it won't be till the middle of summer. Thanks for providing a live show of the conference call. Hopefully we'll see a beta soon! I know for sure we can't say "typical Blizz and their late dates," now that activision has some sway on game decisions. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for an early beta release.
No, they said they started company-wide testing. That does not mean a beta stage.
The fact of the matter is that, if to you a "beta announcement" means them telling us that there will be a beta, then the beta announcement was ages ago. And didn't they say they wanted the beta to last around 6 months? And their language is unmistakeable: "we're still hoping for a 2011 release"; "still pushing for 2011"; etc, etc. Very vague, very "hopeful".
All this combined?
2012. Sad but true.
This is just speculation.
Blizzard would not be doing any "vague or hopeful speculation" when talking to investors, they are serious about their estimations. Furthermore, Blizzard does not want to release any game after Christmas. Doing so would be bad business for any company.
For once in your life people, believe what blizzard says, ffs.
For once in your life people, believe what blizzard says, ffs.
Given their track record of delaying software, I don't see any reason I should believe what they say. Now, I'm not saying they're wrong for delaying software - it's part of why they are so great! Blizzard scoffs at deadlines because they are so quality-focused, and we should all be thankful for that.
If you want to believe the game is coming out in 2011, by all means, do it. It seems optimistic to me, but there's a real chance they could make it. But don't come here and criticize people for taking a different opinion.
Like Kiserai said earlier, this isn't fanboys vs. haters. We all love Bliz, and we all want this game to come out yesterday. But we're all unique individuals who see the world our own way. Blizzard intentionally speaks in obtuse generalities because they refuse to make any real time commitments until very close to release. Absence of evidence leaves us with guesses and opinions. And as we know, opinions are not fact. Neither is belief for that matter.
The only time I've taken issue in these forums is when people start extrapolating wild fantasies from statements that are intended to avoid external commitments.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."
-Thomas Jefferson
For once in your life people, believe what blizzard says, ffs.
Given their track record of delaying software, I don't see any reason I should believe what they say. Now, I'm not saying they're wrong for delaying software - it's part of why they are so great! Blizzard scoffs at deadlines because they are so quality-focused, and we should all be thankful for that.
If you want to believe the game is coming out in 2011, by all means, do it. It seems optimistic to me, but there's a real chance they could make it. But don't come here and criticize people for taking a different opinion.
Like Kiserai said earlier, this isn't fanboys vs. haters. We all love Bliz, and we all want this game to come out yesterday. But we're all unique individuals who see the world our own way. Blizzard intentionally speaks in obtuse generalities because they refuse to make any real time commitments until very close to release. Absence of evidence leaves us with guesses and opinions. And as we know, opinions are not fact. Neither is belief for that matter.
The only time I've taken issue in these forums is when people start extrapolating wild fantasies from statements that are intended to avoid external commitments.
To be fair, there's a large disparity between wild fantasies and being cautiously optimistic. Taking Blizzard's cautious confidence in their own target isn't a wild fantasy. If I said I thought we'd see the beta in a week, that would be a wild fantasy. We both ended last night with a curbing of the hyperbole, let's not wake back up to it.
Damn, once again my realism wins over my optimism. Knowing Blizzard and if they've really JUST started the internal testing, beta will start near the end of Q3, so I don't think there is any hope for a 2011 release.
I understand and can see both sides of the debate. I respect everyone's opinions, but as for my own, I'm still holding out for a 2011 release. I'll remain hopeful that they are intending on doing what they have told their investors in this call.
Life can never be pinned down to one date. Life is life, and always changing. Anything can happen to change the proposed dates. If the dates change, I'll wait on the next known time frame. After all, what else are we gonna do?
For once in your life people, believe what blizzard says, ffs.
Given their track record of delaying software, I don't see any reason I should believe what they say. Now, I'm not saying they're wrong for delaying software - it's part of why they are so great! Blizzard scoffs at deadlines because they are so quality-focused, and we should all be thankful for that.
If you want to believe the game is coming out in 2011, by all means, do it. It seems optimistic to me, but there's a real chance they could make it. But don't come here and criticize people for taking a different opinion.
Like Kiserai said earlier, this isn't fanboys vs. haters. We all love Bliz, and we all want this game to come out yesterday. But we're all unique individuals who see the world our own way. Blizzard intentionally speaks in obtuse generalities because they refuse to make any real time commitments until very close to release. Absence of evidence leaves us with guesses and opinions. And as we know, opinions are not fact. Neither is belief for that matter.
The only time I've taken issue in these forums is when people start extrapolating wild fantasies from statements that are intended to avoid external commitments.
Don't criticize people? I consider criticism a good thing. It's not like I said "daul crossbows sucks" or anything
Also, ActiBliz earnings is up 40%, a new record for them this quarter (mainly due to microtransactions). The company is doing very well, so there's really no reason for them to not be accurate when they say they're getting ready for the game.
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My point being that even if you were CEO or head of dev at another big studio, you have literally zero extra insight over myself or anyone else on this forum (barring Bashiok's secret lurker account or something) over what -Blizzard- really has going on behind closed doors, you don't know where they honestly feel they stand any more than the rest of us.
I don't mind everyone speculating, but no one has any reasonable ground to stand on to claim that their speculation has any more credit to it than anyone else's.
The people who have been in those meetings and are attaching their names / reputations to those dates, loose as they are, have told us Q3 beta, 2011 release as the goal. Why is it unreasonable to believe them? If they said 'Q1 2012' does anyone think sales are going to be lower or something?
I don't appreciate future assumptions, so I'll clear the air now: I'm just as willing to take my forum beating if they do disappoint greatly, and I'll be first in line, albeit graciously, the flaunt my confidence if things go as planned.
We're all friends here...
Edit: And yes we've all heard the rhetoric of 'Well sure 2011 is the GOAL but they know they can't get it out by then...'; this is nonsense. If they're sticking to it even as 'a goal' they have at least a reasonable level of confidence they can do it, there's absolutely no reason they'd lay themselves that clear a trap to fall into later when they have to move the date back.
I honestly respect any opinion though, and frankly damn well hope you're right about 2011, I just don't think so :P.
An yes, we're all friends here, waiting together.. In Purgatory.. Well maybe not
You've basically offered a thin layer of dev-cycle lexicon to what we already know. 'But guys, Blizzard has so much to do before they can launch!' Yes, we're all aware of that, surprisingly enough.
No Blizzard employee ID card? No magical knowledge specific to D3 to share. The guys who do have that knowledge? Oh, Q3 beta and 2011 release is still the target goal.
The nuance, it is astounding.
I totally respect most of your opinions, having read them.. but diminishing the importance of expertise is a common method used by those who lack it.
In any case, we're really digging into some rhetorical skullduggery here. The bottom line is, I expected more information at this conf call than was given. Shame on me.
Edit: yes, we're all friends, and we're ultimately all on the same side. we want D3.
-Thomas Jefferson
Yes, I saw the alpha/beta clarification and it was a fine point to make. On the topic of clarification, I very genuinely appreciate Winged's offerings but a minor in graphic design != 'expertise' on game development, much less Blizzard's, particularly related to D3, which is the only point I was ever making. Corollary proclamations ('I'm a software developer, I'm an investor', ad nauseum) encounter the same problems.
There's a difference between framing your opinion as 'I think that...' and 'You're all wrong and I'm right because of x y and z knowledge that I have.'
It's a good point. And it says to me that I haven't been expressing my points very clearly.
All I've really been saying is that we don't know anything extra, because Blizzard didn't tell us anything substantial. I've been revealing flaws in people's assumptions, not stating anything as fact over other people.
I've also just been trying to caution people about automatically building new timetables on heresay. That has been spun as my being overly negative, which I'm not.
-Thomas Jefferson
What's hard is that it's essentially impossible to find middle ground here; either people are seen as fanboys who think Blizzard can do no wrong and accept anything they're told without any skepticism, or as overly skeptical Blizz-haters that think Blizzard will never do anything right by the players, will always be months/years late, etc. I've obviously been open to being accused of falling into the former camp, and I realize I've been guilty tonight of leveling the latter accusation at you and others. Neither is fair.
All I'm really ever getting at here is that the people who really know what's going on with D3, as best as anyone really does (i.e., anything can happen, something game-breaking appears last minute and they have to postpone, or internal testing goings unbelievably well and we see beta ahead of schedule, etc.) are still saying they think can do this timetable. I think it's unreasonable to think they'd set even a caveat-laden goal this prominently if they didn't think they had a better-than-not chance of hitting it (i.e., 51%+, even slightly better than even odds).
Blizzard has had one sketchy history, we all know that. But I think we're seeing a new era of sorts, and SC2 was pretty pristine as far as living up to their timetable. D3 is a different beast (literally!) but I still believe it bodes well. They've been hyper cautious, as always, at every turn, so now that they've given us even this admittedly preliminary 'date', I'm confident.
/steps off the soapbox
Thank you, and /agree.
The only people who have any real inside knowledge of actual dates of releases have said: Q3 beta, 2011 release, just as you said. That being not only the BEST but the ONLY real non-speculation knowledge we have, I think that, Blizzard's history of timetable jumping aside, at this point (especially given the way the SC2 release went) we have no real reason to doubt those words.
I respect your opinion, 2011 believers. Though I'll say I told ya so on new years
Not changing my sig. Not gonna happen. See you in Tristram on Christmas.
:: Enkeria [Twitter / Twitch / Website / Tattoos]
This is just speculation.
Blizzard would not be doing any "vague or hopeful speculation" when talking to investors, they are serious about their estimations. Furthermore, Blizzard does not want to release any game after Christmas. Doing so would be bad business for any company.
For once in your life people, believe what blizzard says, ffs.
Given their track record of delaying software, I don't see any reason I should believe what they say. Now, I'm not saying they're wrong for delaying software - it's part of why they are so great! Blizzard scoffs at deadlines because they are so quality-focused, and we should all be thankful for that.
If you want to believe the game is coming out in 2011, by all means, do it. It seems optimistic to me, but there's a real chance they could make it. But don't come here and criticize people for taking a different opinion.
Like Kiserai said earlier, this isn't fanboys vs. haters. We all love Bliz, and we all want this game to come out yesterday. But we're all unique individuals who see the world our own way. Blizzard intentionally speaks in obtuse generalities because they refuse to make any real time commitments until very close to release. Absence of evidence leaves us with guesses and opinions. And as we know, opinions are not fact. Neither is belief for that matter.
The only time I've taken issue in these forums is when people start extrapolating wild fantasies from statements that are intended to avoid external commitments.
-Thomas Jefferson
To be fair, there's a large disparity between wild fantasies and being cautiously optimistic. Taking Blizzard's cautious confidence in their own target isn't a wild fantasy. If I said I thought we'd see the beta in a week, that would be a wild fantasy. We both ended last night with a curbing of the hyperbole, let's not wake back up to it.
Yes, give in, all of you.
2012
2012
2012
Life can never be pinned down to one date. Life is life, and always changing. Anything can happen to change the proposed dates. If the dates change, I'll wait on the next known time frame. After all, what else are we gonna do?
For me, it's just best to stay positive.
Don't criticize people? I consider criticism a good thing. It's not like I said "daul crossbows sucks" or anything