Games release on a Tuesday. This needs to be accounted for when you do your math. This only allows for a possible 52 days every year which should help narrow results better. Anyone guessing needs to take this in to account as well.
Its Slovakian e-shop. There are only for Xbox One and PS4 versions listed.
This is a placeholder for orders, and it is likely that they need to include a release date if they put the item on their e-shop. So they make a guess, but I do not intend to use their guess in this little experiment.
Updated D4 Release Date WoC Estimate
Current Estimate (Counting 20 entries): Jan 30, 2023 (30/01/2023)
Just like guessing the weight of a bull in the origin of this method or like guessing the number of jellybeans like in the video, trolly or uninformed guesses are within the bounds of the experiment.
In both cases people had a stake in being as near to the correct result as possible. For the bull they would win the meat and in most jellybean guessing games, the closest guess is expected to win the jar. But even with these incentives towards accuracy, unreasonable guesses would still be possible and accepted into the result - someone in the video guesses 50,000 jelly beans!
And just like people have some idea of the size of a bull, or the size of a jar and the jellybeans within, gamers have a sense of scale with regards to game development and release windows, so it is not out of their experience to make fair estimates. Which is part of how the Wisdom of the Crowds can provide surprisingly accurate results sometimes.
That being said I can remove troll posts and if I get some I will provide two sets of estimates, one with all submitted guesses and one excluding out-sized (aka troll) guesses.
Current Estimate (Counting all 9 entries): June 20, 2022 (20/06/2022)
If you want I can round to the nearest Tuesday.
This is a placeholder for orders, and it is likely that they need to include a release date if they put the item on their e-shop. So they make a guess, but I do not intend to use their guess in this little experiment.
Updated D4 Release Date WoC Estimate
Current Estimate (Counting 20 entries): Jan 30, 2023 (30/01/2023)
Updated D4 Release Date WoC Estimate
Current Estimate (Counting 17 entries): Feb 4, 2023 (04/02/2023)
Updated D4 Release Date WoC Estimate
Current Estimate (Counting 14 entries): April 15, 2022 (15/04/2022)
Updated D4 Release Date WoC Estimate
Current Estimate (Counting 11 entries): July 18, 2022 (18/07/2022)
Just like guessing the weight of a bull in the origin of this method or like guessing the number of jellybeans like in the video, trolly or uninformed guesses are within the bounds of the experiment.
In both cases people had a stake in being as near to the correct result as possible. For the bull they would win the meat and in most jellybean guessing games, the closest guess is expected to win the jar. But even with these incentives towards accuracy, unreasonable guesses would still be possible and accepted into the result - someone in the video guesses 50,000 jelly beans!
And just like people have some idea of the size of a bull, or the size of a jar and the jellybeans within, gamers have a sense of scale with regards to game development and release windows, so it is not out of their experience to make fair estimates. Which is part of how the Wisdom of the Crowds can provide surprisingly accurate results sometimes.
That being said I can remove troll posts and if I get some I will provide two sets of estimates, one with all submitted guesses and one excluding out-sized (aka troll) guesses.
Current Estimate (Counting all 9 entries): June 20, 2022 (20/06/2022)
Guess the date that D4 will be released.
Here's mine: June 28, 2025 (28/06/2025)
Using the Wisdom of the Crowd we can try to estimate the release date of D4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd
https://youtu.be/iOucwX7Z1HU?t=60
All you have to do is guess the date in a post here. And then I can keep a running average which I will update.
Provide a date in either format: Month Day, Year (or DD/MM/YYYY)
D4 Release Date WoC Estimates
Current Estimate (Counting 17 entries): Jan 30, 2023 (30/01/2023)