After having some fun with my chest armor spreadsheet and having bought a belt plan weeks ago, I couldn't wait to get started on a formula for belts. So I worked my hands to the bone to bring you these fine goods and their data. I made a nice formula just for them that differs from the one I used for chests. Take a look!
Primary stats are considered separately. On chests, I grouped them up because of sockets.
I consider armor, all-resist and "other"-resist as separate properties with modified weights.
Every stat should have its own separate contribution towards the value that gets divided by 6 to get an average.
I'm liking what I'm seeing on the sorted lists on that spreadsheet. I only wish that I knew of the best way to combat how much strength beats out intel and dexterity so constantly just because it can roll higher. Right now I'm having the strength property divide by a 200 maximum, but I can't decide if it would make much difference to bump that up to 300.
10500 exquisite essences, average 1500 each: 15750000 gold
1500 iridescent tears, average 100 each: 150000 gold
3000 tomes of secrets, average 1000 each: 3000000 gold
300 crafting cost, 91494 gold each: 27448200 gold
Total crafting costs: 46,348,200 gold
I updated the spreadsheet with all current sales tallied, I sold 53,875,000 gold worth before blizz's 15% cut, after 15% cut it's 45,793,750 gold. I've just about broken even with plenty of good chests still left to sell. I'm wearing two of the best pieces I crafted, and just recently crafted 300 belts that I'm currently logging, and have 7 million total gold. I "wasted" about 20 million or so gold on crafting 150 helms of which less than 10 sold but otherwise took up auction spots and I gave up on after making back all 20 million on them. I still have like 140 helms cluttering up characters, stash and mailbox. On that note, I documented all the helms I crafted so If anyone wants to see what I have and would like to make an offer on taking all of them, I'd be interested in that.
edit: by the way there are a good 20 or so undocumented sales because someone is helping me sell the lower items for 75-100k each while I sell the better ones in my spots.
Another thing to consider is the value of the plan which is around 6 million gold. Although, if you can turn a profit consistently then the plan's value is just a sunk cost that's effect diminishes every day. The main thing is turning a profit.
My thought is that if a crafting player can break even over the 700-1200 (I've not seen a large enough sample to justify this range however) crafts it takes to roll a chest with 230+ vit, 65+ all res, 100+ main stat, 3 sockets, and some nice extras like high armor,life%,MF, etc, then that's where the big profit will come in.
Absolutely. I didn't include the plan costs just because they've been fluctuating so much, but that was something to consider too. FWIW, despite what my recorded costs and profit were like I mentioned before, I started all this only off of a couple decent drops, a dagger that I sold for about 20 million and a chest I was able to randomly snag for 3 bucks somehow that was worth 15 million.
I do wish it was a little more reliable to make back your money doing it, I can kinda imagine crafting 150 and if some those top chests on my spreadsheet hadn't been crafted, it would be much harder to break even.
I think I'm most interested in the affix combinations and limitations. I'm loving this data.
The most interesting things I've noted are the probabilities with stat rolls. For example: I never realized that the resists were a positively skewed bell curve (it's very very likely to roll high resists as opposed to rolling low resists) and I didn't realize that there were two different affix strengths that the primary stats fall into.
Maybe this info will help you in identifying the rarest of your chests:
Keep up the good work and give me more data to work with!
I would love access to the Helm spreadsheet you've been keeping. Depending on the rolls, I might be interested in an upgrade to my own..
If you can make use of it, awesome. I have a spreadsheet somewhere where I tried to assign values to everything and whatnot, but I went a little crazy adding different combinations and stuff and I found it kinda useless. There's just too much to consider like what the value of something that has magic find but no socket compared to magic find and a socket, etc. This is just the raw data from 150 helms. I sold maybe 10-20 of these but if you want any of them, I can see if I have it and sell it to you for cheap.
edit: I think the reason helms sell slower is because every class but DH and barb has a class-specific helm, which max out at 62 so you're not doing any amazing favors by crafting ilvl 62 generic helms. WDs and wizards in particular rely on mana regen and arcane power from crit, which these helms don't provide. Also, everyone thinks sockets are necessary for a MF or GF build (understandably), so those nice combos are useless unless a socket is there, and a socket is only on about 1/3 of the crafted helms it seems.
- While both primary stat and vitality are important, they aren't worth the same, i.e. 30dex+170vita would have a different value from 100dex+100vita (or 200dex).
- Sockets shouldn't always be worth +58stat, since you're not gonna put the highest gem into a 100k chest armor. Socket value should be dependent on the overall value of the item. (e.g. 38stat for items under 100k, 46stat for items around 1-2mil, etc.)
- Values exceeding certain round numbers should be worth some extra, e.g. +101dex is worth more than +99dex by more than just +2stat points, since people tend to search AH for stats higher than certain values, such as 100+, 150+, etc.
- Specific resistances are worth almost as much as all resist on pieces with dexterity (for monks), but they wouldn't be worth as much for other classes.
Having said all that, please don't treat my points as "you got this wrong!", it's more meant like "wouldn't this be worth considering?".
Cheers mate, keep up the good work.
I like constructive criticism. However, I do have specific responses to all the points you mentioned :).
First, you're absolutely right about the primary stat and vitality. The reason they are grouped together actually completely has to do with sockets. I think most people would agree that despite what many have said about sockets not being better than another, perfectly rolled property, pretty much everyone wants sockets on their chests and pants (not to mention weapons, which they are probably the best stat).
With that in mind, I considered the fact that everyone would have their own way of socketing their items. For example, even if I put 3 emeralds in a chest piece I feel like works best for a monk, maybe there's 149 strength and 150 dexterity, and I just went with dexterity. Awesome amount of dexterity can go in there right? But a barb with 300 million gold wants the chest, and will put his own gems in, and found it just searching for 140+ strength. Maybe that barb wants to put in 3 vitality gems instead, so he can get other items that have less vitality and still have 40k health.
Really, grouping all the stats together was my way of comparing a chest piece with 3 sockets and some amount of strength and vitality to another piece that has maybe higher amounts of strength, dexterity and vitality but no sockets, considering that despite whatever search priorities people use, they still will have their own ideas about sockets. That brings me to my next point.
You might notice on the spreadsheet that I also considered giving sockets just 34 stats per socket, there's a column just for that. I ended up deciding to go with the 58 per socket, despite how ridiculous that sounds, because not only will a top tier demon hunter with 3 radiant star emeralds laying around favor 3 socketed pieces for his alt monk, people just prefer 3 sockets on their chests anyway. It's fair IMHO to bias towards the sockets providing more value as a property than a primary stat just for the customization. I've certainly noticed my top selling items (you can see my evidence on the sold items sheet) have 3 sockets. Really, if you think about it, since I already decided to just lump all the stats together as one big "primary stat" value, that gets multiplied by amount of properties, all it ends up doing is adding a slight amount of value to sockets compared to a high/perfect primary roll. It also kinda works because it just ends up averaging even when there's no primary stats to speak of, it's hurt when it's only 3 sockets and no other primary stats.
Theoretically, and I've worked this out, an item with 3 sockets, 200 primary stat, 300 vitality and then something like perfect all resist and armor for its final two stats ends up having the highest average values as I'd imagine a chest piece like that should. With the current formula, that theoretical piece would have a 0.88 average, and guess what, there are pieces on my list that even have a higher defense value than that, like 1.325 vs 1.38 for something that has high armor, all resist and fire resist.
About the rounded values, that's a very good point and I could consider making the formula more complicated based on what people would search for. I'd be partial to something like a slight added value based on hitting a round number, just because I know an easy way to add that, rather than a whole formula based around it. For its current purposes though, I have to admit having a value based around actually being better rather than perception is more interesting to me, even though I'm mainly using the formula to find AH values anyway.
Finally to address the monk thing, and also to add in a note about gold find+ pickup radius, I actually tried that when I logged 150 helms and hated how skewed the list would be based on those values. I figured I could change the sale value myself if it had an extraneous value based on combos and certain builds.
I know more than anything this is by no means perfect, I agree, but in reality this whole project's goal was to put these items closer to the top than other pieces. Then I can just look at the list and choose which ones to sell.
10500 exquisite essences, average 1500 each: 15750000 gold
1500 iridescent tears, average 100 each: 150000 gold
3000 tomes of secrets, average 1000 each: 3000000 gold
300 crafting cost, 91494 gold each: 27448200 gold
Total crafting costs: 46,348,200 gold
I updated the spreadsheet with all current sales tallied, I sold 53,875,000 gold worth before blizz's 15% cut, after 15% cut it's 45,793,750 gold. I've just about broken even with plenty of good chests still left to sell. I'm wearing two of the best pieces I crafted, and just recently crafted 300 belts that I'm currently logging, and have 7 million total gold. I "wasted" about 20 million or so gold on crafting 150 helms of which less than 10 sold but otherwise took up auction spots and I gave up on after making back all 20 million on them. I still have like 140 helms cluttering up characters, stash and mailbox. On that note, I documented all the helms I crafted so If anyone wants to see what I have and would like to make an offer on taking all of them, I'd be interested in that.
edit: by the way there are a good 20 or so undocumented sales because someone is helping me sell the lower items for 75-100k each while I sell the better ones in my spots.
I crafted 301 6-property chest armors, and wrote down the results of every craft. Not only that, I devised a formula to compare them directly to each other no matter what stats exist on them based on a series of weights that so far has seemed to work out quite well for me.
Not only THAT, but I wrote down every price I was able to sell them at, and hope to soon be able to come up with a way to automatically price them according to past sales, adjusted slightly due to the lowered costs of production as essences go down in price and the less demand over time that is to be expected.
As of two full recorded crafts now, every good piece I noticed while browsing through them manually has appeared near the top of a sorted "average property value" list. That's good enough for me even though the formula could use some work I'm sure, to account for good goldfind/radius combos and such.
Copy the spreadsheet and put your own values in and see where they match up to see if it works as well as I think it does!
If you want more info on how I came up with the formula and why it makes sense to me, here's a TL;DR reddit post (reddit.com) I made on the subject. Up-vote it if you found it useful!
Hopefully 1.04 will bring people back. I cant sell a damn thing and its halfway decent stuff. Got a ring for sale right now with the following stats:
100 dex
79 vit
26% crit damage
115 life per second
Asking only 225k and it hasnt sold.
from now on for all my auctions im just gonna set a buyout at what a similar item is no matter how high then set a bid at what I would pay for it. Then I will let the market decide what its actually worth and people can bid on it.
I just looked on AH for rings with those stats minus the useless life regen. There are tons on the AH selling for 25-75k and ones much much much better selling for the 225k you want. Properly price your ring and it will sell. It is not hard to look up similar items on the AH before sellign yours, or just list it up for bids and get what you get. Either way is better than pulling a price out of thin air with no research.
Wait what? I just typed in the 3 boxes 100 dex, 79 vit, and 26 crit damage and the cheapest ring it returned was 1.1 million and that was after I cut it back it 95 dex 75 vit and 25 crit. so its actually worse than my ring. At my stats the closest ring was 1.8 million.
You're still not searching right. I just did a search for dex, vit and crit damage and sorted by price. This isn't rocket science. The second result is going for 5k and has a socket, 48 dex, 55 vit and 25 crit dmg. With a 2k 34 dex emerald in there, it's a grand total of 18 dex, 24 vit and 1 crit damage off of your ring. Pray tell, who in their right mind is going to pay you 218k more gold for 18 dex, 24 vitality and 1% extra crit damage?
Won't do a better job than this, but I can say that 48 + 38 equals 86, and that the downgrade is only 14 vit, not 18. (this DOES strengthen the point of this post though, so please don't go loose on me, thanks)
Re-read my post, I said a 2k 34 dex emerald, as in a flawless square, which is 34 not 38 dex. Also, I was comparing the 55 vit in that pic to the 79 vit he quoted, which is a 24 difference, like I said
Hopefully 1.04 will bring people back. I cant sell a damn thing and its halfway decent stuff. Got a ring for sale right now with the following stats:
100 dex
79 vit
26% crit damage
115 life per second
Asking only 225k and it hasnt sold.
from now on for all my auctions im just gonna set a buyout at what a similar item is no matter how high then set a bid at what I would pay for it. Then I will let the market decide what its actually worth and people can bid on it.
I just looked on AH for rings with those stats minus the useless life regen. There are tons on the AH selling for 25-75k and ones much much much better selling for the 225k you want. Properly price your ring and it will sell. It is not hard to look up similar items on the AH before sellign yours, or just list it up for bids and get what you get. Either way is better than pulling a price out of thin air with no research.
Wait what? I just typed in the 3 boxes 100 dex, 79 vit, and 26 crit damage and the cheapest ring it returned was 1.1 million and that was after I cut it back it 95 dex 75 vit and 25 crit. so its actually worse than my ring. At my stats the closest ring was 1.8 million.
You're still not searching right. I just did a search for dex, vit and crit damage and sorted by price. This isn't rocket science. The second result is going for 5k and has a socket, 48 dex, 55 vit and 25 crit dmg. With a 2k 34 dex emerald in there, it's a grand total of 18 dex, 24 vit and 1 crit damage off of your ring. Pray tell, who in their right mind is going to pay you 218k more gold for 18 dex, 24 vitality and 1% extra crit damage?
from now on for all my auctions im just gonna set a buyout at what a similar item is no matter how high then set a bid at what I would pay for it. Then I will let the market decide what its actually worth and people can bid on it.
Also, YMMV but bidding IMHO is only for the best items, and means nothing for lower items, lower meaning 10 million gold and below. I've sold several thousand auctions since release and I'm not kidding (because I noticed every single flippin' time), only 2 or 3 actually sold at a bid amount when a buyout was set. And I almost always set the bid amount to less than half the buyout amount. This is with plenty, PLENTY of those thousands of auctions having lasted the full day and a half.
That ring is not priced right. Exactly what was mentioned before. Anyone looking for a starter dps ring for act 1 inferno isn't likely going to spend 200k on one piece, and anyone looking for an upgrade over their currently good ring is going to look for better than that. And what I mean by better is crit chance to go along with the crit damage. There are rings with less dex, sure, but crit chance to go along with the crit damage at less than 225k. Think about it, anyone who knows how much dps crit dmg and crit chance can add will look for both on a piece that can have both, and between the two they would rather have crit chance instead of crit dmg because they can just socket the crit dmg on their weapon.
At current prices I'd bet you'd have to list it less than 100k to expect it to sell quickly, and even then I'm not so sure.
edit: and to give you a very specific anecdote, I have a better ring on my disused (fane) demon hunter that I geared up in the first week of release and havent really touched since the nether tentacles nerf, and i paid 90k for his ring. Price your items right and they will sell.
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiK4Z3ahtYl8dDd3bDBsendZNUxVQ0x6U18yVDZJdnc
The formula differs from the one I used on chest armor here in the following ways:
- Primary stats are considered separately. On chests, I grouped them up because of sockets.
- I consider armor, all-resist and "other"-resist as separate properties with modified weights.
- Every stat should have its own separate contribution towards the value that gets divided by 6 to get an average.
I'm liking what I'm seeing on the sorted lists on that spreadsheet. I only wish that I knew of the best way to combat how much strength beats out intel and dexterity so constantly just because it can roll higher. Right now I'm having the strength property divide by a 200 maximum, but I can't decide if it would make much difference to bump that up to 300.0
Absolutely. I didn't include the plan costs just because they've been fluctuating so much, but that was something to consider too. FWIW, despite what my recorded costs and profit were like I mentioned before, I started all this only off of a couple decent drops, a dagger that I sold for about 20 million and a chest I was able to randomly snag for 3 bucks somehow that was worth 15 million.
I do wish it was a little more reliable to make back your money doing it, I can kinda imagine crafting 150 and if some those top chests on my spreadsheet hadn't been crafted, it would be much harder to break even.
0
If you can make use of it, awesome. I have a spreadsheet somewhere where I tried to assign values to everything and whatnot, but I went a little crazy adding different combinations and stuff and I found it kinda useless. There's just too much to consider like what the value of something that has magic find but no socket compared to magic find and a socket, etc. This is just the raw data from 150 helms. I sold maybe 10-20 of these but if you want any of them, I can see if I have it and sell it to you for cheap.
https://docs.google....TnF4bWNkd2RTR0E
edit: I think the reason helms sell slower is because every class but DH and barb has a class-specific helm, which max out at 62 so you're not doing any amazing favors by crafting ilvl 62 generic helms. WDs and wizards in particular rely on mana regen and arcane power from crit, which these helms don't provide. Also, everyone thinks sockets are necessary for a MF or GF build (understandably), so those nice combos are useless unless a socket is there, and a socket is only on about 1/3 of the crafted helms it seems.
0
I like constructive criticism. However, I do have specific responses to all the points you mentioned :).
First, you're absolutely right about the primary stat and vitality. The reason they are grouped together actually completely has to do with sockets. I think most people would agree that despite what many have said about sockets not being better than another, perfectly rolled property, pretty much everyone wants sockets on their chests and pants (not to mention weapons, which they are probably the best stat).
With that in mind, I considered the fact that everyone would have their own way of socketing their items. For example, even if I put 3 emeralds in a chest piece I feel like works best for a monk, maybe there's 149 strength and 150 dexterity, and I just went with dexterity. Awesome amount of dexterity can go in there right? But a barb with 300 million gold wants the chest, and will put his own gems in, and found it just searching for 140+ strength. Maybe that barb wants to put in 3 vitality gems instead, so he can get other items that have less vitality and still have 40k health.
Really, grouping all the stats together was my way of comparing a chest piece with 3 sockets and some amount of strength and vitality to another piece that has maybe higher amounts of strength, dexterity and vitality but no sockets, considering that despite whatever search priorities people use, they still will have their own ideas about sockets. That brings me to my next point.
You might notice on the spreadsheet that I also considered giving sockets just 34 stats per socket, there's a column just for that. I ended up deciding to go with the 58 per socket, despite how ridiculous that sounds, because not only will a top tier demon hunter with 3 radiant star emeralds laying around favor 3 socketed pieces for his alt monk, people just prefer 3 sockets on their chests anyway. It's fair IMHO to bias towards the sockets providing more value as a property than a primary stat just for the customization. I've certainly noticed my top selling items (you can see my evidence on the sold items sheet) have 3 sockets. Really, if you think about it, since I already decided to just lump all the stats together as one big "primary stat" value, that gets multiplied by amount of properties, all it ends up doing is adding a slight amount of value to sockets compared to a high/perfect primary roll. It also kinda works because it just ends up averaging even when there's no primary stats to speak of, it's hurt when it's only 3 sockets and no other primary stats.
Theoretically, and I've worked this out, an item with 3 sockets, 200 primary stat, 300 vitality and then something like perfect all resist and armor for its final two stats ends up having the highest average values as I'd imagine a chest piece like that should. With the current formula, that theoretical piece would have a 0.88 average, and guess what, there are pieces on my list that even have a higher defense value than that, like 1.325 vs 1.38 for something that has high armor, all resist and fire resist.
About the rounded values, that's a very good point and I could consider making the formula more complicated based on what people would search for. I'd be partial to something like a slight added value based on hitting a round number, just because I know an easy way to add that, rather than a whole formula based around it. For its current purposes though, I have to admit having a value based around actually being better rather than perception is more interesting to me, even though I'm mainly using the formula to find AH values anyway.
Finally to address the monk thing, and also to add in a note about gold find+ pickup radius, I actually tried that when I logged 150 helms and hated how skewed the list would be based on those values. I figured I could change the sale value myself if it had an extraneous value based on combos and certain builds.
I know more than anything this is by no means perfect, I agree, but in reality this whole project's goal was to put these items closer to the top than other pieces. Then I can just look at the list and choose which ones to sell.
0
10500 exquisite essences, average 1500 each: 15750000 gold
1500 iridescent tears, average 100 each: 150000 gold
3000 tomes of secrets, average 1000 each: 3000000 gold
300 crafting cost, 91494 gold each: 27448200 gold
Total crafting costs: 46,348,200 gold
I updated the spreadsheet with all current sales tallied, I sold 53,875,000 gold worth before blizz's 15% cut, after 15% cut it's 45,793,750 gold. I've just about broken even with plenty of good chests still left to sell. I'm wearing two of the best pieces I crafted, and just recently crafted 300 belts that I'm currently logging, and have 7 million total gold. I "wasted" about 20 million or so gold on crafting 150 helms of which less than 10 sold but otherwise took up auction spots and I gave up on after making back all 20 million on them. I still have like 140 helms cluttering up characters, stash and mailbox. On that note, I documented all the helms I crafted so If anyone wants to see what I have and would like to make an offer on taking all of them, I'd be interested in that.
edit: by the way there are a good 20 or so undocumented sales because someone is helping me sell the lower items for 75-100k each while I sell the better ones in my spots.
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Forgot to re-add that earlier, gonna add it now
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I'll update the spreadsheet with a new sheet mentioning the profit now, and get back to you
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http://imgur.com/N34ef
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Not only THAT, but I wrote down every price I was able to sell them at, and hope to soon be able to come up with a way to automatically price them according to past sales, adjusted slightly due to the lowered costs of production as essences go down in price and the less demand over time that is to be expected.
As of two full recorded crafts now, every good piece I noticed while browsing through them manually has appeared near the top of a sorted "average property value" list. That's good enough for me even though the formula could use some work I'm sure, to account for good goldfind/radius combos and such.
Copy the spreadsheet and put your own values in and see where they match up to see if it works as well as I think it does!
Here's the spreadsheet (google docs)
If you want more info on how I came up with the formula and why it makes sense to me, here's a TL;DR reddit post (reddit.com) I made on the subject. Up-vote it if you found it useful!
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Re-read my post, I said a 2k 34 dex emerald, as in a flawless square, which is 34 not 38 dex. Also, I was comparing the 55 vit in that pic to the 79 vit he quoted, which is a 24 difference, like I said
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You're still not searching right. I just did a search for dex, vit and crit damage and sorted by price. This isn't rocket science. The second result is going for 5k and has a socket, 48 dex, 55 vit and 25 crit dmg. With a 2k 34 dex emerald in there, it's a grand total of 18 dex, 24 vit and 1 crit damage off of your ring. Pray tell, who in their right mind is going to pay you 218k more gold for 18 dex, 24 vitality and 1% extra crit damage?
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Also, YMMV but bidding IMHO is only for the best items, and means nothing for lower items, lower meaning 10 million gold and below. I've sold several thousand auctions since release and I'm not kidding (because I noticed every single flippin' time), only 2 or 3 actually sold at a bid amount when a buyout was set. And I almost always set the bid amount to less than half the buyout amount. This is with plenty, PLENTY of those thousands of auctions having lasted the full day and a half.
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At current prices I'd bet you'd have to list it less than 100k to expect it to sell quickly, and even then I'm not so sure.
edit: and to give you a very specific anecdote, I have a better ring on my disused (fane) demon hunter that I geared up in the first week of release and havent really touched since the nether tentacles nerf, and i paid 90k for his ring. Price your items right and they will sell.