I hate this game. The last thing I want to try before 2.1 is the Jade spec and I'm missing only the boots for weeks now (I don't get to play that much). This week alone I got 5 other set boots, hooray.. also have the pants like 4 or 5 times.
Greetings fellow gamers! A friend that is an avid D3 player asked me to render an opinion on some threads dealing with RNG here, which led me eventually to this thread. I thought I might be able to contribute something useful, so after pinging the thread creator re: linking to elsewhere, I humbly offer the following.
My education and background of several start-ups had me intimately involved in the subject at hand. Seeing the same kind of misunderstandings I see here in the fora I frequented, I decided to do something about it. I produced some guides with the intent of giving the interested reader something to chew on beyond the typical post, beyond wikipedia, but less than a textbook. I tired to condense what I would teach in a semester into a few dozen pages, and focused on how it relates to games. I hope at least a few here find it interesting and useful.
There are two guides in particular relevant to this thread. Neither is short. Both require some effort and willingness to think on the part of the reader. I am convinced, however, that the reward of that effort will be an understanding for the reader well beyond that of the typical poster. There really isn't a TL;DR version - these *are* TL;DR for getting a degree in CS/Mathematics. If you aren't really interested in the facts and putting on the thinking cap, they probably aren't going to be your cup of tea. With that in mind....
A Guide to RNG and its use in games- This covers what an RNG is, what most games use, how this is combined with game logic to produce drops, and why there's "good" and "bad" luck, streaks, dry-spells, etc. in random systems. There are code examples (no worry if you're not a coder - the results are explained).
A Guide to Proper Drop Rate Inference and Sample Sizes- This covers the mathematics behind making proper conclusions about drop behavior from observations of the game. This is a bit more mathematically slanted than the RNG guide by necessity, but nothing anyone comfortable with algebra would have trouble with. This addresses the all too common fallacy of small-sample comparisons and unjustified assertions from small samples.
Happy to answer any questions via whatever mechanisms are appropriate here (PM, thread interaction).
Congrats, Kyparn ^^
RNG still hates me, I've play my DH for 480 hours and counting more, spent about 23k Bloody Shard but still no Calamity. I had about 1.2k riftstones and they vanished after 4 day rifting and I got nothing special ...
I thought that rifting in Master level will be better than Torment. is that true ? Because in Master there's no Torment-only-set-item, so the chance for my dream Calamity will be bigger, as thought. But I tested and after 3-continuous Master rift, I've got no legendary item. Anybody has any suggestion, plz ?
Back to this, now I've played nearly 600 hours and gambled about 40k Blood Shard on Kadala. My friend has played DH for 150 hours and a week ago, he got Kridershot. Finally he got both Calamity and Kridershot. I couldn't even think about my luck. Even in one rift, I got 7-legendary-handcrossbows without any green one, but no Calamity, haha
True RNGessus... I've been playing 400+ hours on my Wiz looking for upgrade... then my first ice climber drop... rolling DEX and low at it too 422 with the rest okay roll but which means I can't give up move speed for other thing like skill boost etc. I've also been looking for a decent harrington waistguard as the one I have only roll 103% and 104% extra dmg.
I then copy my wiz over to PTR, ran a quick T4 rift to test out my firebird set, within the first rift, dropped a better firebird pants (with 2 sockets so I can reroll other stats), an 487 int ice climber and a harrington waistguard (RG) with 131% dmg. I was so cheesed... and I can't even keep these beauties... sigh....
I feel the same way.. If you're like me and only play casually, then its hard to play and feel you're making progress with the drop rates of certain items. There is an expectation that everyone needs to put in hundreds/thousands of hours to get "desirable' legs which is quite scarey given RNG really does appear to be random with no memory and will not make sure you get the mauruder set by your 1000th hour. You could be in for a very very long wait.
I've put in 500 hours into my wiz and she has still has MANY hyped items to find. I have not even started playing a monk, barb, crusader yet.
Its more likely we will see a major game changing patch than it is we'll find say, a Wow or something. Thats what i find really amusing about how this game is designed
I actually HAVE a furnace, didn't know what the heck it was and ALMOST recycled it....at first glance it was kinda ameh looking thing, but...I seem to have kept it. Literally was going through the stash and went "oh".
Don't have a Thunderfury, Don't have a Cold Immunity ammy, I think I have all the others, maybe not lightning. (There IS one?)
I'm gathering Jade ( 3 pcs) have 3 piece Zuni atm, am gathering firebirds, vyrs, Nats, full set of marauders, 5 extra pieces (dunno why) full shadows set, Two pieces of Thorns ( bothNOT smart dropped)etc, Honestly, while I don't have everything, most things seem to drop. Don't have a WoH, Serpent Striker, Mirrorball, Mask of Jeram,etc etc. But I kinda feel some of this WILL drop, eventually.
What's kicking my ass, is stupid caches. Drop rates are horrendous out of these damn things. I do bounties now for teh keywardens and gold. I click the caches but don't expect shinola and that's what usually happens. It's the only place in the game I'm truly despondent on the RNG. Hell, even Kadala's got her good days.
Caches "usually" will conform to the main stat of the toon opening them. Sooooo I've been farming Torment 4 caches with my DH and opening them with my Wizzies/WD. But I've been getting butkus lately. It's been getting depressing to even click on them lately.
Does kadala give kridershot? as ive spent over 5k of bloodshards and had nothing but a windforce :/ 400 hours and still no kridershot drop either diablo hates me
5k shards is not much and 400 hours will not guarantee a drop of a weight 10 weapon. I've found a Kreidershot last week after about 100 hours on my DH in ROS. I know, i got lucky but on my other classes like the wiz for an example, i've spent hundreds of hours and still no wand of woh.
I've spent 16k blood shards to get marauder's boots ^^
I remember getting my Crusader to 70 and gearing up for my first run in T1 , enters game , opens T1 rift , enters and prepares for battle . It's the keep depths map , go through first door fires off my first shot into a trash pack "Fist of the heavens" sparklies fly everywhere , one snakes it's way into a dark corner and explodes a bunch of barrels just sitting there . Out pops a legendary flail , picks it up and immediately id's it as Fate of the fell , man I was stoked . Not only the fact it's a great item but was able to jump straight into T3 with it